USA: Tilray’s beverage business poised for volume growth as Carlsberg deal date nears

Tilray Inc is positioned for higher-return growth as it prepares to begin brewing and distributing Carlsberg products in the US from January 2027, Jefferies said, raising its price target to $13 from $12.

The broker said Tilray’s restructuring of its US brewing operations, which reduced its production facilities from 10 to six, should allow additional volumes to flow through a smaller asset base, improving utilisation and returns on capital.

Tilray is best known for its cannabis business, but it also has a substantial brewing and beverage operation.

Jefferies estimates the Carlsberg partnership could add 8% to 10% to Tilray’s current beverage volumes, with the company targeting one million cases in the first year through its existing production and distribution infrastructure.

The partnership is due to begin on 1 January, providing an initial volume boost as products enter the distribution system, while the additional production should help spread fixed costs across higher volumes.

Tilray is targeting about $20 million in annual savings by financial year 2028 from its restructuring, with the full impact of its efficiency initiatives expected in that year.

Management reaffirmed its financial year 2027 adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation guidance of $68 million to $75 million, while Jefferies forecasts $69 million for that year and $76 million for financial year 2028.

The broker made no changes to its earnings forecasts but increased its valuation multiple for financial year 2028 to 24 times from 23 times, keeping its estimate of $76 million in adjusted EBITDA unchanged.

Jefferies said the higher target reflected the potential for improved capacity utilisation and better returns from Tilray’s smaller US brewing footprint as Carlsberg volumes build.

The broker cautioned that consolidating facilities could result in inventory write-downs or other restructuring-related costs, although it said there was not enough information to estimate their potential impact.

The revised $13 price target reflects Jefferies’ expectation that the Carlsberg partnership could support incremental volume growth without requiring a comparable expansion of Tilray’s production infrastructure.

30 October, 2026